14 Sept · 10:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RM
🇨🇿Radek Muller
ELO 1484
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Muller
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1470
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Muller rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (51)
Fair odds · Muller
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~82 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H16-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.