14 Sept · 09:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RM
🇨🇿Radek Muller
ELO 1484
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Muller
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1398
FormLLWWL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Marat🌟Muller rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (51)
Fair odds · Muller
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H10-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-4)