14 Sept · 13:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1594
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skvrna
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1612
FormLWWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (144)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H34-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.