14 Sept · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1475
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Strelec
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1500
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 67% (102)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H9-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.