14 Sept · 10:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1504
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Matus
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1475
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Matus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (69)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H22-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.