14 Sept · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SH
🇨🇿Simon Holik
ELO 1526
FormWLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Hnizdil
TH
🇨🇿Tomas Hnizdil
ELO 1642
FormWWWWW
41%
59%
🌟Holik goes over total as underdog 68% (38)
Fair odds · Hnizdil
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+116
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+116)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)