14 Sept · 13:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1503
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sindler
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1513
FormWWWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 69% (90)
Fair odds · Sindler
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H23-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.