14 Sept · 12:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1479
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kral
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1509
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 74% (72)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~82 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H39-45
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.