14 Sept · 18:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1590
FormLLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Sarganek
MZ
🇨🇿Marek Zaskodny
ELO 1506
FormLWLWW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zaskodny🌟Sarganek stays under total as favourite 62% (82)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 44% · 2.25· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~72 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+84
H2H24-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-18)