14 Sept · 20:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1493
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zeman
OS
🇨🇿Ondrej Skvor
ELO 1474
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Skvor🌟Skvor covers set handicap as underdog 69% (39)
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.