14 Sept · 21:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1501
FormLLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Vitasek
DV
🇨🇿Daniel Vitasek
ELO 1505
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vitasek🌟Heuman covers set handicap as underdog 72% (65)
Fair odds · Vitasek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H19-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.