14 Sept · 18:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
T2
🇨🇿Tomas Beran 2000
ELO 1557
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Trnka
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1577
FormLLLWL
48%
52%
🌟2000 covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Trnka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.