14 Sept · 19:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Daniel Hyza
ELO 1625
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Benes
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1680
FormLWLLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Benes
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H15-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.