14 Sept · 20:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krcil
ELO 1486
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Krcil
RJ
🇨🇿Roman Jonas
ELO 1450
FormWLWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Krcil
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.