14 Sept · 16:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Bartik
ELO 1663
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Bartik
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1577
FormLLLWL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Trnka🌟Bartik goes over total as favourite 66% (44)
Fair odds · Bartik
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H10-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-5)