14 Sept · 17:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1577
FormLLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kucera
MK
🇨🇿Martin Kucera
ELO 1579
FormWWLWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kucera🌟Kucera rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (13)
Fair odds · Kucera
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 31% · 3.20· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.