15 Sept · 09:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1629
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Gembala
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1582
FormLLWLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Krupnik covers set handicap as underdog 66% (89)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H13-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.