15 Sept · 14:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JO
🇨🇿Jan Osmera
ELO 1524
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Knazik
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1557
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Osmera
Fair odds · Knazik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H24-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.