15 Sept · 09:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1499
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Strelec
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1514
FormWWWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Matus🌟Strelec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (45)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H14-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.