15 Sept · 08:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1495
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jemelka
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1456
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Snr covers set handicap as underdog 73% (41)
Fair odds · Jemelka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.