15 Sept · 09:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1495
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Strelec
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1514
FormWWWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jemelka🌟Jemelka covers set handicap as underdog 71% (45)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.