15 Sept · 10:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1456
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1499
FormLWLWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Snr covers set handicap as underdog 73% (41)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.