15 Sept · 22:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TV
🇨🇿Tomas Vorisek
ELO 1665
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kadavy
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kadavy
ELO 1674
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vorisek
Fair odds · Kadavy
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H18-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.