15 Sept · 16:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇨🇿Martin Lorenc
ELO 1487
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lorenc
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1477
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
🌟Chlad covers set handicap as underdog 64% (47)
Fair odds · Lorenc
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.