15 Sept · 17:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇨🇿Martin Lorenc
ELO 1487
FormWWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lorenc
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1370
FormLLLLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Lorenc
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+117
H2H5-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+117)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-3)