15 Sept · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Cerveny Jr
ELO 1496
FormWLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Jr
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Rein
ELO 1432
FormLLLLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rein
Fair odds · Jr
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+64
H2H45-33
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (45-33)