15 Sept · 22:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1604
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sarganek
RK
🇨🇿Rene Kowal
ELO 1549
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
🌟Sarganek stays under total as favourite 63% (83)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H25-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.