15 Sept · 21:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RZ
🇨🇿Radek Zeman
ELO 1465
FormLWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Mach
JM
🇨🇿Jakub Mach
ELO 1526
FormWWLLW
45%
55%
🌟Mach goes over total as favourite 65% (57)
Fair odds · Mach
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+61
H2H12-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-3)