15 Sept · 22:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1647
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kadavy
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kadavy
ELO 1674
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stusek
Fair odds · Kadavy
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H11-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.