15 Sept · 17:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Pros
ELO 1439
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pros
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1412
FormWLLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Pros
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H6-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.