15 Sept · 21:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1528
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Hons
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vidourek
ELO 1479
FormWLLWW
54%
46%
🌟Vidourek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (46)
Fair odds · Hons
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H8-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.