15 Sept · 18:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1412
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chmelicek
PP
🇨🇿Petr Pesout
ELO 1398
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
🌟Chmelicek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (58)
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H12-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.