15 Sept · 21:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RK
🇨🇿Rene Kowal
ELO 1549
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kowal
AB
🇨🇿Antonin Baros
ELO 1520
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Baros🌟Kowal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (49)
Fair odds · Kowal
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H22-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.