16 Sept · 10:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1427
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zajac
RZ
🇨🇿Radek Zajac
ELO 1443
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
🌟Snr covers set handicap as underdog 67% (45)
Fair odds · Zajac
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.56· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.