16 Sept · 08:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1614
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Macurak
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Kindl
ELO 1559
FormWWLLW
55%
45%
🌟Kindl goes over total as underdog 63% (68)
Fair odds · Macurak
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H10-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-7)