16 Sept · 11:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1576
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rek
AR
🇨🇿Adam Martin Rek
ELO 1592
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 72% (152)
Fair odds · Rek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H42-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.