16 Sept · 16:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DT
🇨🇿Dominik Tichy
ELO 1476
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dvorak
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1514
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tichy🌟Tichy covers set handicap as underdog 74% (58)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H8-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.