17 Sept · 09:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1538
FormLLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Rek
AR
🇨🇿Adam Martin Rek
ELO 1607
FormLWWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Rek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+69
H2H6-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-5)