17 Sept · 08:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Kindl
ELO 1526
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1538
FormLLLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kindl🌟Kindl goes over total as underdog 64% (70)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H22-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.