17 Sept · 12:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1564
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pawlik
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1538
FormLLLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (72)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H15-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.