17 Sept · 11:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1598
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Krupnik
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krenek
ELO 1561
FormLLWWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krenek🌟Krenek goes over total as underdog 67% (90)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H43-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.