17 Sept · 13:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1492
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kral
LM
🇨🇿Ladislav Moravec
ELO 1487
FormLLWLW
50%
50%
🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 73% (75)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H10-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.