17 Sept · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1598
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skvrna
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1615
FormWWLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Krupnik covers set handicap as underdog 67% (91)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H35-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.