17 Sept · 14:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1499
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Filipek
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1492
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
🌟Kral goes over total as underdog 69% (159)
Fair odds · Filipek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H46-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.