17 Sept · 10:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OF
🇨🇿Ondrej Fiklik
ELO 1511
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Moravec
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1538
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.