17 Sept · 14:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1667
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Benes
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1642
FormWWWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Benes
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H21-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.