17 Sept · 13:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1667
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Benes
JZ
🇨🇿Jachym Zacharda
ELO 1623
FormWLLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Benes
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H15-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.