17 Sept · 13:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1757
FormWLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Cerny
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1642
FormWWWWL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~74 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+115
H2H21-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+115)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-6)