17 Sept · 17:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KB
🇨🇿Karel Baros
ELO 1510
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Moravec
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1543
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Baros🌟Baros covers set handicap as underdog 67% (36)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.