17 Sept · 18:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Miroslav Sochor
ELO 1502
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sochor
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1490
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 64% (74)
Fair odds · Sochor
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H44-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.